San Francisco → Sydney flights

SFO–Sydney: median $519, but 12 days of data is a thin read

Key takeaways

• Median fare of $519 anchors the low end of the observed range, with bottom-quartile fares clustering right at $519–$575
• Spread of 29% between low and high ($507–$654) is moderate — worth comparison shopping, but not extreme volatility
• Top quartile fares climb to $575+, with the ceiling at $654 for the priciest cached fares seen
• Sample size of just 12 snapshots means this read is directional, not definitive
• No dominant carrier was identifiable from the data, so airline-specific booking patterns can't be confirmed

30-day price trend

See full numbers and stats on the SFO → SYD price history page.

The full picture

Over the 12-day window we tracked, SFO–Sydney fares ranged from $507 to $654, with a median of $519 — notably close to the observed low. That tight clustering near the bottom of the range, combined with a 29% spread, suggests most cached fares were reasonably affordable during this period, with only a handful of pricier outliers pulling the high end up. The 25th and 75th percentiles ($519 and $575) tell a similar story: half of all observed fares fell within a fairly narrow $56 band, which is useful context if you're trying to gauge whether a quoted price is competitive.

We can't respond to specific booking-window timing (like weeks-before-departure patterns) because our data captures a snapshot period rather than a full purchase-to-departure timeline. What we can say is that if you're seeing a fare at or near $519, you're likely at or below the median for this route, and there's historically been limited upside in waiting given how close the median sits to the low. Fares above $575 pushed into top-quartile territory in our sample, and the $654 high represents the ceiling observed — a useful benchmark for recognizing when a fare is genuinely expensive relative to recent history.

No single carrier stood out clearly enough in the data to draw conclusions about airline-specific pricing behavior on this route, so we're not making claims there. The honest caveat: 12 days is a small sample for a long-haul international route like this, and fare patterns on SFO–Sydney can shift with seasonality, fuel surcharges, and capacity changes that a 12-day window won't capture. Treat the $519 median as a useful reference point rather than a guarantee, and use the $507–$575 range as your practical target zone when comparing quotes.

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