San Francisco → Tokyo flights

SFO–Tokyo: Target $378 and book when fares dip toward $332

Key takeaways

• Median fare is $378, identical to the p25, meaning half of all observed fares landed at exactly this floor or above.
• The lowest recorded fare was $332 — about 12% below median — suggesting periodic but not frequent dips worth watching for.
• The top quartile starts at $400, so fares above that level represent the pricier end of a relatively tight range.
• Spread is 24% (from $332 to $411), meaning prices do move meaningfully — monitoring over a few weeks is worth the effort.
• With 30 daily snapshots underpinning these figures, the data is solid enough to treat the $378 median as a reliable anchor.

30-day price trend

See full numbers and stats on the SFO → NRT price history page.

The full picture

The SFO–Tokyo corridor shows a surprisingly tight price band given the length of the route. With a low of $332 and a high of $411, the full observed range spans just $79 — a 24% spread that is real but not dramatic. The fact that both the median and p25 land at $378 is notable: it tells you that the lower half of fares are compressed right around that number, rather than scattered across a wide range. In practical terms, $378 is a fair price; anything at or below it is a reasonable buy, and fares above $400 represent the top quartile where patience may pay off.

On timing: a spread of 24% is wide enough to justify checking fares over two to three weeks rather than booking impulsively, but not so wide that you should hold out indefinitely for a lottery-ticket price. The $332 floor exists in the data, but it appeared infrequently enough that it's better treated as a target of opportunity than a guaranteed outcome. If you see a fare within roughly 5% of $332 — say, under $350 — that's a strong signal to book. Conversely, if fares are hovering near $400 or above, there is modest historical precedent for softening back toward the median.

No dominant carrier signal was visible in this dataset, so carrier-specific advice isn't warranted here. Similarly, day-of-week departure patterns can't be confirmed from snapshot data alone, and claiming otherwise would be speculation. The honest caveat: these 30 snapshots reflect cached fares at a single point in each day's pricing cycle — actual bookable fares at any given moment may differ slightly, and seasonal demand shifts (holidays, cherry blossom season, Golden Week) can push prices outside this observed range entirely.

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