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Median SFO–Tokyo fare is $288 over 30 days; most prices sit $287–$308, so book when you see anything near or under median.
Written from this route's 30-day price index (30 daily samples). Article last regenerated Oct 17, 2026.
See full numbers and stats on the SFO → NRT price history page.
The 30-day data shows SFO–Tokyo fares behaving fairly predictably: a median of $288, with the middle 50% of observed prices packed into a narrow $287–$308 band. That tight interquartile range tells you the "normal" price for this route is well-defined — most days, you'll see something close to $288, not wild swings above or below it. The $238 low is the exception, not the rule, since it sits well outside the P25–P75 band rather than anchoring the typical fare.
Because the bulk of fares cluster so close to the median, there isn't strong evidence in this dataset of prices "softening" at a particular point in a booking window — we simply don't have the calendar-day detail to say prices drop at 21 days out or 60 days out. What the data does support is a practical threshold: if you see a fare at or below $288, you're already at or better than the midpoint of 30 days of pricing. Anything approaching $308 is on the high end of normal, and anything near $238 should be booked immediately, since it's an outlier low relative to everything else observed.
We don't have carrier-level detail in this dataset, so no claims can be made about which airline tends to offer the lower fares on this route, nor about day-of-week patterns — the snapshots are daily cheapest-fare reads, not broken out by weekday or airline. The overall 30% spread is moderate and mostly attributable to that single low outlier rather than frequent broad price swings, so treat $238 as a lucky find rather than a recurring opportunity. The honest takeaway: this route prices fairly consistently in the high-$200s, and the data doesn't give us enough resolution to recommend specific booking-window timing beyond "watch for anything at or below median."
Why we regenerated this article: Price spread tightened by 31 points. We only rewrite when the underlying price index actually moves — stable weeks keep the previous take.
AI-authored from this route's 30-day price index. Article last regenerated Oct 17, 2026. Fares shift continuously — confirm at booking.