San Francisco → Tokyo flights

Median SFO–Tokyo fare is $387 — bottom quartile runs $363 or less

Key takeaways

• $387 median across 30 daily snapshots of cheapest cached fares
• Bottom quartile (p25) sits at $363, a realistic target if you're patient
• Fares ranged from a low of $289 to a high of $410, a 42% spread
• Top quartile fares approach the ceiling — 75% of days priced at $399 or below
• With a spread this wide, timing your purchase matters more than usual on this route

30-day price trend

See full numbers and stats on the SFO → NRT price history page.

The full picture

The data shows a fairly wide pricing band for SFO–Tokyo: a $289 low against a $410 high, a 42% spread that's on the higher end of what we typically see. That gap suggests this route sees real fare volatility rather than a tight, predictable price — travelers who buy on a high-price day could pay noticeably more than the median for the same seat class and route.

With 30 days of snapshots, we have a reasonable sample size to trust the median ($387) and quartile figures, though this window doesn't tell us where in the broader booking horizon (weeks or months out) prices tend to soften — only that whatever mix of booking windows fed these 30 days produced this spread. A practical approach: treat the p25 mark of $363 as a reasonable target worth waiting for, and treat anything above $399 (the p75 line) as a day to hold off if your dates are flexible. The $289 low is real but sits well outside the interquartile range, so don't bank on seeing it again soon — it likely reflects an unusual fare drop rather than a typical outcome.

We don't have enough carrier-level detail in this dataset to identify a dominant airline or day-of-week pattern for this route, so we can't respons­ibly claim that flying on a particular day or airline is cheaper here. The honest takeaway: this is a route with meaningful price swings, the median is a fair anchor for budgeting, and the bottom quartile is a good aspirational price — but predicting the exact day fares will dip isn't something this data supports.

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