San Francisco → Nassau flights

Fares cluster near $142, but one outlier spike hit $204

Key takeaways

• Median fare of $142 held steady across the majority of the 8 snapshots collected.
• Bottom quartile (p25) equals the median at $142, meaning most observed days priced at or near the floor.
• High of $204 was a clear outlier, driving a 44% spread despite the tight clustering elsewhere.
• Only 8 days sampled — too thin a window to call day-of-week or carrier patterns with confidence.
• No dominant carrier was identifiable from this data, so airline-specific pricing behavior can't be confirmed.

30-day price trend

See full numbers and stats on the SFO → NAS price history page.

The full picture

The data shows a route that mostly prices at a consistent $142, with p25 and median identical — a sign that cheap fares aren't rare outliers but the norm during this window. The $204 high is the exception that drags the spread to 44%, which looks large on paper but is really one spike pulling on an otherwise flat distribution. If you see something near $142, that's the going rate, not a lucky find.

With only 8 snapshots, this dataset is too thin to responsibly map a booking-horizon curve — we can't say whether prices soften further out or spike closer to departure, because we simply haven't observed enough days to see that pattern emerge. What we can say is that the floor appears stable: repeated sampling found $142 far more often than anything higher, suggesting that waiting for a better deal than $142 may not pay off, while paying close to $204 is avoidable if you have any flexibility to shop around or wait a few days.

No dominant carrier emerged clearly from the data, so we can't speak to whether a specific airline is driving either the low baseline or the high outlier. The honest caveat here is sample size: 8 days is a small window, and the 44% spread is the product of a single high data point rather than a consistent pattern of volatility. Treat $142 as a reasonable target fare, but don't read too much into the booking-timing story until more data accumulates.

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