San Francisco → Miami flights

Most fares cluster at $130 — a rare $84 dip is the exception

Key takeaways

• Median fare sits at $130, and the middle 50% of days (p25–p75) is also exactly $130 — most days are priced identically.
• Low of $84 pulls the range down, but it appears to be an isolated outlier rather than a typical price.
• High of $136 is barely above the median, showing little upside risk once you're past the $130 baseline.
• 62% spread looks dramatic, but it's driven by one cheap day, not a broad distribution — the data clusters tightly otherwise.
• Only 12 snapshots were sampled, so this should be read as an early signal, not a firm seasonal pattern.

30-day price trend

See full numbers and stats on the SFO → MIA price history page.

The full picture

The headline spread of 62% between this route's low and high fares sounds like a volatile market, but the quartile data tells a different story. Both the 25th and 75th percentiles land exactly at the $130 median, meaning the bulk of observed days priced identically. The $84 low appears to be a single outlier rather than evidence of a recurring cheap window — if low fares were common, we'd expect the p25 to sit below the median, not match it exactly.

With only 12 days of snapshots, we can't responsibly map this to a booking-horizon curve — there isn't enough history to say whether prices soften at 3 weeks out versus 6 weeks out, or whether that $84 fare was a fluke, a flash sale, or a data artifact. What we can say is that $130 has functioned as a reliable anchor price across the sample, and travelers budgeting for this route should expect to pay close to that figure most of the time, while staying alert for occasional drops well below it.

No dominant carrier was identifiable in this data, so we can't speak to airline-specific pricing behavior or schedule patterns. The honest takeaway: treat $130 as your realistic benchmark, treat $84 as a lucky outcome rather than a target, and don't read too much into the wide spread — it's a function of one low data point, not a consistently volatile market. A larger sample over a longer window would meaningfully sharpen this picture.

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