San Francisco → Mexico City flights

Median fare $178 — but a thin sample masks real spike risk

Key takeaways

• Median fare is $178, with the middle 50% of fares (p25–p75) packed tightly between $178 and $191
• The low of $158 sits close to the median, suggesting routine fares rarely drop dramatically further
• A high of $399 shows occasional sharp spikes, pushing the spread to 153% — driven by a small number of outlier snapshots, not the norm
• With only 12 snapshots, this is a thin sample — treat trends as directional, not precise
• No dominant carrier was identifiable from this data, so we can't speak to airline-specific pricing patterns

30-day price trend

See full numbers and stats on the SFO → MEX price history page.

The full picture

The data shows a fairly stable core fare for SFO–Mexico City, with a median of $178 and a tight interquartile range ($178–$191). That tells us most fares on this route cluster close together — the bottom quartile and median are nearly identical, suggesting $178–$190 is a realistic target for a typical booking rather than a lucky find. The $399 high, however, is a meaningful outlier: it pulls the spread to 153%, far above what the tightly-packed p25–p75 band would imply on its own. That kind of gap usually signals either a handful of high-demand dates or snapshots taken close to departure, when remaining inventory skews pricier.

Because we only have 12 daily snapshots, we can't map a reliable booking curve — there isn't enough history here to say with confidence whether prices soften at 3 weeks out versus 6 weeks out, or to isolate weekday effects. What we can say is that the bulk of observed fares sit near the median, so a fare offered in the $170s–$190s is consistent with the bulk of the data, while anything approaching $300+ looks like the tail, not the norm. If you see a fare close to $178–$191, it's reasonable to treat that as a fair deal for this route based on what we've observed.

No single carrier stood out clearly in the data, so this writeup can't speak to airline-specific booking quirks (like one carrier consistently pricing higher). The honest caveat: with a sample of just 12 days and a spread this wide, the median is a decent anchor, but the $399 high is a real possibility worth budgeting for — this isn't a route where we can confidently promise a narrow, predictable price band.

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