San Francisco → Lisbon flights

SFO–Lisbon fares cluster near $335, with occasional spikes to $412

Key takeaways

• Median fare of $335 across the sampled window, with a low of $330
• Bottom quartile (p25) sits at $330, just a few dollars below the median — most observed fares are tightly clustered near the floor
• Top quartile (p75) is $335, meaning three-quarters of sampled fares were at or near the low end of the range
• Occasional high fares reached $412, producing a 25% spread between low and high
• Sample size is thin — only 11 days of snapshots — so treat patterns as directional, not definitive

30-day price trend

See full numbers and stats on the SFO → LIS price history page.

The full picture

The data shows a fairly narrow band of pricing for most of the window, with fares bunching between $330 and $335 for the bulk of the sample. That tight clustering at p25 and p75 suggests that on most days, this route prices consistently — the $412 high appears to be an outlier rather than the norm, pulling the overall spread to 25% even though typical day-to-day movement looks much smaller.

With only 11 days of snapshots, we can't responsibly claim a seasonal or booking-window trend — this is too short a sample to say whether fares soften further out or closer to departure. What we can say is that if you're watching this route, a quoted fare near $330–335 is consistent with the bulk of observed pricing, and anything approaching $400+ has historically been the exception rather than the rule in this dataset. That makes $335 a reasonable anchor price: paying meaningfully more than that hasn't reflected typical conditions during the sampled period.

We don't have enough carrier-level detail in this payload to identify a dominant airline or attribute the price spikes to a specific fare class or schedule change, so we won't speculate on why the $412 outlier occurred. The honest takeaway: this route's fares have been stable and affordable for most of the sample window, but with only 11 observations, a single new data point could shift the picture. Treat the $335 median as a solid reference point, not a guarantee, and watch for sustained moves away from the $330–335 band before concluding the market has shifted.

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