San Francisco → New York flights

Fares cluster near $176 — bottom quartile dips to $157

Key takeaways

• Median fare sits at $176, with the bulk of fares (p25–p75) packed tightly between $157 and $176
• The observed low of $122 suggests occasional discounts well below typical pricing, though these appear rare in this sample
• A 48% spread between low and high looks wide, but it's driven mostly by one low outlier rather than broad daily swings
• With only 12 snapshots, this read is directional, not a seasonal pattern — treat it as a short-term pricing snapshot
• No dominant carrier was identifiable from the data, so fare behavior here reflects overall market pricing, not one airline's strategy

30-day price trend

See full numbers and stats on the SFO → JFK price history page.

The full picture

Over the 12-day window we tracked, SFO–JFK fares held fairly steady, with a median of $176 and most fares (the middle 50%) landing between $157 and $176. That tight band suggests pricing on this route is currently stable rather than volatile — the $176 ceiling and $157 floor for typical fares are only about 12% apart, even though the full range (from $122 to $180) looks wider at first glance.

The $122 low is the outlier here, pulling the overall spread to 48%. Because it sits well below the p25 mark of $157, it likely reflects a single unusually cheap fare rather than a recurring dip — possibly a short-lived sale or a one-off schedule change. We can't say whether it was tied to a specific booking window, since our sample doesn't give us enough history to map price against days-until-departure. What the data does support is that paying close to the median ($176) is the realistic expectation for most travelers checking fares on this route right now, with some chance of landing in the high-$150s if you check on the right day.

We don't see enough signal in this dataset to point to a specific carrier pattern or weekly rhythm — the sample is simply too thin (12 days) to draw conclusions about day-of-week effects or airline-specific pricing behavior. The honest takeaway: expect to pay in the $157–$176 range for SFO–JFK based on current data, treat the $122 fare as a lucky exception rather than a target, and recheck closer to your travel dates since this snapshot reflects a short recent window, not a full seasonal cycle.

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