San Francisco → Washington flights

SFO–DCA fares cluster near $139–$144 — low $105 fares are rare

Key takeaways

• Median fare is $139, with the bottom quartile (p25) already at $139 — most observed prices sit at or above the median.
• Top quartile caps at $144, meaning three-quarters of snapshots fell in a tight $139–$144 band.
• Low of $105 appeared at least once, but it's an outlier against a tightly clustered dataset — don't bank on seeing it again.
• 37% spread between low and high looks wide, but it's driven almost entirely by that single low fare, not by broad daily volatility.
• Only 12 snapshots were sampled, so treat this as a directional read rather than a definitive pricing calendar.

30-day price trend

See full numbers and stats on the SFO → DCA price history page.

The full picture

The data shows a fare range of $105 to $144 on the SFO–DCA route, but the distribution tells a more specific story than the raw spread suggests. With a median of $139 and a p25 also at $139, the bulk of observed prices are packed into a narrow $139–$144 corridor. The $105 low appears to be an isolated dip rather than a recurring pattern — if you're budgeting, $139–$144 is the realistic range to expect, with $105 representing a lucky outcome rather than a baseline.

We only have 12 daily snapshots here, which is a thin sample for drawing firm conclusions about booking windows. That said, the tight clustering between p25 and p75 ($139–$144) suggests pricing on this route has been fairly stable recently, without the kind of wide day-to-day swings that reward aggressive timing strategies. If you see a fare at or below the $139 median, that's a reasonable signal to book rather than wait, since the data doesn't show strong evidence of fares softening further within this window.

No dominant carrier or day-of-week pattern is visible in this dataset, so we can't speak to whether specific airlines or departure days behave differently on this route. The honest caveat: a 37% spread sounds significant, but with only 12 data points it's being driven by a single low outlier rather than a reliable pattern of discounts. Treat $139 as your practical target price, and don't delay a booking hoping for a repeat of the $105 fare — the data doesn't support expecting it.

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