San Francisco → Cancun flights

SFO–Cancún: median $176, but 12-day sample keeps the data thin

Key takeaways

• Median fare sits at $176, with a bottom quartile at $153 worth watching for
• Prices swing from $153 to $219, a 43% spread that's fairly wide for this route
• The top quartile holds at $214, close to the observed high of $219 — meaning worse-than-median fares aren't rare outliers
• Only 12 snapshots back this data, so day-of-week and carrier patterns aren't reliable yet
• If you see something near or below $176, it's already at or beating the midpoint of what we've tracked

30-day price trend

See full numbers and stats on the SFO → CUN price history page.

The full picture

The $153–$219 range on SFO–Cancún translates to a 43% spread between low and high — wide enough that timing matters, but not so wide that any one fare looks like an anomaly. With a median of $176 and a p75 of $214, roughly a quarter of observed fares crept close to the $219 ceiling, so travelers shouldn't assume cheap fares dominate the market; paying near $200 is common enough to expect, not just a worst-case scenario.

We can't respond to this sample with specific booking-window advice — 12 days of snapshots isn't enough to confidently say when in the booking horizon prices typically soften for this route. What we can say is that the bottom quartile ($153) and top quartile ($214) are far enough apart that patient searching, rather than booking on the first fare you see, is likely to pay off. A fare at or below the $176 median is a reasonable target based on what's been observed so far.

No dominant carrier was identifiable in this data, and we don't have enough days to spot meaningful day-of-week trends — so we're not making claims about which weekday to fly or book. The honest caveat: with only 12 samples, this snapshot is a useful directional signal, not a robust statistical baseline. Treat the $153–$219 range as the current reality window, and expect it to shift as more data accumulates.

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