New York → San Francisco flights

Fares cluster near $176 — but sample size is thin, so stay flexible

Key takeaways

• Median fare sits at $176, with most observed prices bunched toward the higher end of the range
• Bottom quartile ($142 or below) represents the better-value zone worth waiting for
• Low of $122 shows real discounts do surface, but they appear to be the exception, not the norm
• A 48% spread between low and high means timing can meaningfully affect what you pay
• Only 12 snapshots were analyzed — a thin sample that limits confidence in precise patterns

30-day price trend

See full numbers and stats on the JFK → SFO price history page.

The full picture

The JFK–San Francisco route shows a median fare of $176, but the data reveals a wide 48% spread between the $122 low and $180 high. That gap suggests this isn't a flat, predictable route — travelers who shop around or wait for a dip have a real shot at paying well below the typical price, while those booking at the wrong moment risk landing near the ceiling. With 75% of observed fares falling at or below $180, and a quarter of them at $142 or less, aiming for that bottom-quartile zone is a reasonable target rather than a stretch goal.

We don't have enough snapshots here to responsibly claim a specific booking window softens prices — 12 days of data is a thin sample for this kind of route, which tends to see meaningful day-to-day fare movement on a busy transcontinental corridor. What we can say is that the presence of a $122 fare within the same window as a $180 fare indicates genuine volatility, so price-tracking or setting alerts is likely to pay off more than guessing at a calendar pattern.

No dominant carrier was identifiable in this dataset, and no clear day-of-week signal emerged — the sample size simply isn't large enough to support that kind of claim. The honest takeaway: this route has meaningful price variability, the median is a useful anchor, but with just 12 data points we'd caution against treating any single number here as gospel. Check back as more snapshots accumulate, and in the meantime, treat $142 or below as a good deal and $176 as roughly average.

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