Houston → New York flights

IAH–JFK fares are steady near $114 — spread is too tight to time

Key takeaways

• Median fare is $114, barely above the observed low of $113
• Spread is just 14%, among the narrower ranges we track — little room for 'waiting it out'
• Bottom quartile (p25) equals the median at $114, meaning most snapshots clustered right at the floor
• High end tops out at $129 — even the priciest fares stayed close to typical pricing
• Sample size is thin at 12 days, so treat this as a directional read, not a precise forecast

30-day price trend

See full numbers and stats on the IAH → JFK price history page.

The full picture

The data on IAH–JFK fares shows a tight band: a $113–$129 range with a median of $114 across 12 daily snapshots. A 14% spread is low by typical domestic-route standards, which tells us this isn't a route where patient shoppers get rewarded with dramatic discounts — most fares cluster near the floor already. The fact that p25 equals the median ($114) reinforces this: the bulk of observed prices sit right at the low end, with only occasional upward outliers pulling the high to $129.

Because the range is so compressed, there isn't strong evidence of a booking window where prices reliably soften. In routes with wider spreads, waiting for a dip or booking early to avoid last-minute surcharges can matter — but here, the ceiling is only about 13% above the median, so the downside of booking "at the wrong time" is small. Practically, this means travelers on this route can prioritize convenience (schedule, seat selection, loyalty program) over trying to time the market, since the fare difference between a lucky and unlucky booking day is roughly $15.

We don't have enough signal in this dataset to identify carrier-specific patterns or day-of-week effects — the payload doesn't surface a dominant carrier, and with only 12 snapshots, we can't confidently attribute price movement to weekday versus weekend departures. The honest caveat: 12 days is a thin sample for a route that likely sees more volatility around holidays or events, so this snapshot reflects a calm pricing period rather than a guaranteed year-round pattern. Treat $114 as a reasonable benchmark fare, and treat anything near $113–$120 as a good price worth booking rather than holding out for a bigger discount.

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