New York → Reykjavík flights

Target $394 on JFK–KEF — but watch for dips to $316

Key takeaways

• Median fare is $394, based on 17 daily snapshots of the cheapest cached fares on this route.
• Bottom-quartile fares cluster tightly around $394 — the p25 and p75 are virtually identical ($394–$395), meaning most days look the same.
• The low of $316 is a genuine outlier — a ~20% drop below the median — worth watching for but not guaranteed to recur.
• Spread of 45% ($316–$458) shows real upside risk: high-end fares are nearly $130 above the floor.
• Sample size is thin at 17 days — treat these figures as directional, not statistically conclusive.

30-day price trend

See full numbers and stats on the JFK → KEF price history page.

The full picture

The JFK–Reykjavik route shows an unusual pricing pattern: despite a 45% spread between the lowest ($316) and highest ($458) observed fares, the interquartile range is almost perfectly flat at $394–$395. In plain terms, the vast majority of days in this snapshot window returned the same fare, with one or two meaningful dips pulling the low end down. That means this route isn't one where patient monitoring is reliably rewarded — but the outlier low of $316 does confirm that cheaper fares exist and do surface.

Because the median and both quartile boundaries are essentially the same number, there is no detectable booking-horizon pattern in this dataset — we can't say with confidence that fares soften at a particular number of weeks out. What the data does suggest is that $394 is a stable "floor" for most of the market, and anything below $360 should be treated as an actionable deal worth booking promptly rather than waiting on.

No dominant carrier signal is present in the data provided, so carrier-specific advice would be speculation. The honest takeaway: set a fare alert at $350 or below, be ready to book quickly if it triggers, and treat $394 as a reasonable baseline if you need to plan with certainty. One important caveat — with only 17 daily snapshots, this analysis captures a narrow slice of time and may not reflect seasonal peaks, holiday surcharges, or fare changes tied to schedule updates. Validate against a live search before purchasing.

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