New York → Bali flights

Budget $512 for JFK–Bali, but watch for $289 outliers

Key takeaways

• Median fare is $512, with the middle 50% of observed prices packed tightly between $511 and $555 — meaning most days you'll pay close to that figure.
• The $289 low is a genuine outlier, sitting far below the p25 of $511; don't plan around it, but set a fare alert in case it resurfaces.
• Spread of 92% (low to high) sounds dramatic, but the interquartile range is only $44 — the true day-to-day variance most travelers experience is narrow.
• High end was $555, just $43 above median, so overpaying isn't a major risk if you book at a typical moment.
• Sample size is 17 days — slightly thin, so treat these figures as directional rather than definitive seasonal benchmarks.

30-day price trend

See full numbers and stats on the JFK → DPS price history page.

The full picture

The JFK–Bali route tells a story of two price regimes. The vast majority of fares observed — captured in a p25-to-p75 band of $511 to $555 — cluster tightly around the $512 median, suggesting that for most travelers booking at a normal lead time, the realistic target is right around $510–$555. This is a long-haul itinerary (typically 20+ hours with at least one connection), and fares at that level are broadly consistent with what the market sustains for this corridor.

The $289 low-end observation is the number that will catch your eye, and it deserves honest framing: at 44% below the median and more than $220 below the next quartile boundary, it is almost certainly a flash sale, a misfiled fare, or a very specific combination of dates and routing that briefly surfaced in cached results. It is worth setting a fare alert — tools like Google Flights or Hopper will notify you if prices approach that territory again — but building a travel plan around it would be optimistic. On the high side, $555 represents the ceiling observed here, and the narrow gap between median and maximum means there is limited downside to booking when you first see a fare in the $510–$530 range.

Because the interquartile range is only $44, there is no strong evidence from this data that timing your booking to a specific day of the week or month produces meaningfully better outcomes on this route. The actionable guidance is straightforward: treat $512 as your baseline expectation, move quickly if you see anything under $480, and don't wait indefinitely chasing the $289 outlier. One honest caveat: 17 daily snapshots is a relatively thin sample for a route this complex, and fares may behave differently across seasons, particularly around Bali's peak periods in July–August and the year-end holidays.

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