San Francisco → Osaka flights

SFO–KIX fares cluster near $410 — bottom quartile tops out at $398

Key takeaways

• $410 median fare across 30 daily snapshots — a reliable baseline to budget against
• Bottom quartile fares run $398 or less, suggesting modest but real savings are available for patient searchers
• Prices ranged from $388 to $462, a 19% spread — noticeable but not extreme volatility
• Top quartile fares start at $411, meaning most observed days sit in a fairly tight $398–$411 band
• With only a 19% spread, timing matters less here than on more volatile routes

30-day price trend

See full numbers and stats on the SFO → KIX price history page.

The full picture

Over the 30-day sample window, SFO to KIX fares held fairly steady, with a median of $410 and a 19% spread between the $388 low and $462 high. That's a moderate range — not the wild swings seen on more volatile international routes, but enough that waiting for a dip is worthwhile. The bottom quartile (25th percentile at $398) and the tight clustering up to the 75th percentile ($411) suggest that on most days, fares sit within about $13 of the median, with occasional higher outliers pulling the average up.

Because this dataset reflects a 30-day rolling snapshot rather than a full multi-month booking curve, we can't make strong claims about how far in advance to book or whether prices soften as departure approaches — the data simply doesn't extend that far back. What we can say is that if you're seeing a quoted fare at or below $398, you're in the better-priced quartile of what's been observed recently; anything above $411 is on the higher end of the recent range.

No single dominant carrier or weekly pattern was distinguishable from the data provided, so we can't responsibly claim that one airline or one day of the week consistently prices lower on this route. The honest takeaway: SFO–KIX pricing has been relatively stable over the past month, the spread is moderate rather than extreme, and the most actionable signal is the price itself — treat anything near or below $400 as a good fare, and anything pushing past $450 as worth skipping unless your dates are fixed. This snapshot-based view is a solid gauge of recent pricing behavior, but it's not a long-range forecast, and fares can shift with fuel costs, seasonality, or route demand not captured here.

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