San Francisco → Hong Kong flights

SFO–HKG fares cluster near $405 — target the $360 floor

Key takeaways

• Median fare is $405 across 17 daily snapshots of the cheapest available cached prices.
• Bottom 25% of fares fell at or below $360 — that's your realistic target if you're willing to wait and monitor.
• The full observed range is $359–$448, a spread of roughly 25%, meaning meaningful savings are available but prices don't swing wildly.
• The interquartile range is just $54 ($360–$414), suggesting the market is fairly stable — don't expect a dramatic crash.
• Sample size is 17 days, below the 30-day ideal, so treat these figures as directional rather than definitive.

30-day price trend

See full numbers and stats on the SFO → HKG price history page.

The full picture

The SFO–HKG fare market looks relatively stable right now. With a median of $405 and 75% of sampled fares sitting at or below $414, prices aren't volatile — the 25% spread across the full observed range is moderate, and the tight interquartile band of just $54 tells you most days the cheapest fare lands somewhere in a narrow corridor. That's actually useful: it means you don't need to obsessively watch prices hoping for a dramatic collapse, but it also means you shouldn't delay indefinitely expecting one.

The actionable floor here is approximately $360 — that's both the observed low and the 25th percentile, which means fares touched that level on at least a quarter of sampled days. If you can set a fare alert and act quickly when prices dip into the $359–$365 band, you're capturing a legitimate discount of roughly 10–11% off the median. Whether that dip recurs depends on load factors and carrier inventory decisions that aren't visible in this dataset, so flexibility on travel dates meaningfully improves your odds of landing there.

No dominant carrier pattern is visible in the data provided, so it would be speculation to steer you toward a particular airline. Similarly, the dataset covers 17 days rather than the full 30-day window, which limits confidence in trend direction — prices could be drifting up, drifting down, or simply oscillating. Treat the $360–$414 range as the realistic playing field, aim for the lower end, and recognize that on any given search day you're more likely to see something near $405 than the floor. If you find $375 or below, that's a strong result by this market's own standards.

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