New York → Tokyo flights

JFK–Tokyo fares cluster near $436 — spread is modest

Key takeaways

• $436 median fare across all 30 sampled days in the window
• Middle half of fares fell between $413 and $441, a narrow band
• Low of $340 was an outlier compared to the rest of the data
• High capped at $457, meaning most fares stayed close to the median
• 34% spread from low to high, but most prices didn't stray far from $436

30-day price trend

See full numbers and stats on the JFK → NRT price history page.

The full picture

Over the last 30 days, every day in the window had a cached fare, giving a solid, complete picture of JFK–Tokyo pricing. The median sat at $436, and the middle half of all fares landed between $413 and $441 — a tight band that suggests pricing has been fairly stable rather than volatile. The $340 low stands apart from the rest of the data, more likely a one-off fare sale than a reliable target, while the $457 high shows the ceiling hasn't moved much either.

With a full 30 days of samples and a relatively narrow middle range, there's no strong evidence of a specific point in the booking horizon where prices dropped sharply. The data doesn't show a clear softening period — fares appear to have held close to the median throughout the window. That said, the presence of a low outlier at $340 hints that occasional fare drops do happen, even if they're not the norm, so travelers with flexible plans may want to watch for a similar dip rather than expect it on a fixed schedule.

The dataset doesn't surface a specific dominant carrier or day-of-week pattern, so no claims can be made there. Given the 34% spread between low and high, there's more room for variation than the tight p25–p75 band suggests, but the bulk of fares — the middle 50% — stayed within a $28 range of each other, which is a reasonably predictable spread for an international long-haul route. The honest takeaway: budgeting around $436 is sound, but don't bank on replicating the $340 low without some luck or flexibility.

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