Washington → Toronto flights

Median fare is $94 — but one outlier can cost you $293

Key takeaways

• Median fare is $94 across 30 daily snapshots — a short, inexpensive hop by North American standards.
• The middle 50% of fares fall between $86 and $106, a tight $20 band that suggests the baseline price is fairly stable.
• The low of $82 is achievable but rare — don't anchor your budget to it.
• A high of $293 inflates the spread to 257%, almost certainly driven by last-minute or peak-demand pricing rather than a typical fare shift.
• With p25 at $86, roughly a quarter of observed fares came in at or below that level — setting a realistic 'good deal' threshold.

30-day price trend

See full numbers and stats on the DCA → YYZ price history page.

The full picture

The DCA–YYZ market is, by most measures, one of the more predictable short-haul international routes in eastern North America. The interquartile range — $86 to $106 — spans just $20, which tells you that on a normal shopping day, your fare is unlikely to move dramatically. If you see a price under $100, you're sitting comfortably in the bottom half of what this market typically offers. The $94 median is the number to keep in mind as your reference point; anything meaningfully above $106 should prompt you to check again in a day or two rather than buying immediately.

The $293 high is worth understanding for what it is: a sharp outlier rather than a reflection of regular pricing. A spread of 257% sounds alarming, but when the interquartile range is this tight, that figure is almost entirely explained by a single tier of last-minute or high-demand inventory. The practical takeaway is that procrastination carries real risk on this route — not because fares gradually creep up, but because there appears to be a cliff where prices can jump abruptly once lower-fare inventory sells through. Booking two to four weeks out, when $86–$94 fares are typically accessible, is a reasonable target window based on where the bulk of observed prices landed.

Carrier concentration data isn't available in this snapshot, so fare patterns tied to specific airlines can't be confirmed here. Similarly, while some analysts cite mid-week booking advantages, the 30-day snapshot used here doesn't break down by day of purchase — so that claim can't be grounded in this data. The honest caveat: thirty snapshots capture a moment in time, not a full seasonal cycle. If you're traveling during a Canadian holiday weekend or a major Washington event, the $86–$106 band may not apply.

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