San Francisco → Taipei flights

Median sits at $422 — but a rare $240 floor shows up in the data

Key takeaways

• Median fare is $422, and the bottom quartile (p25) is $405 — meaning most days offer little discount
• 75% of fares fall between $405 and $423, a tight band just under the $425 high
• A single outlier low of $240 appears in the 30-day window, well below the typical range — worth grabbing if you see it again
• 77% spread between low and high looks large, but it's driven by that one low fare, not consistent day-to-day swings
• Sample size is 24 snapshots, a reasonably solid window but still under a full month of data

30-day price trend

See full numbers and stats on the SFO → TPE price history page.

The full picture

The data shows a market that's mostly stable at the top end, with $422 as the median and 75% of observed fares packed tightly between $405 and $423. That narrow band suggests this route doesn't discount often — if you're seeing something in the low $400s, you're already near the typical price, not overpaying. The headline 77% spread looks dramatic, but it's almost entirely attributable to a single $240 fare buried in the 24-day sample rather than a recurring pattern of cheap fares.

Because the vast majority of snapshots sit close to the $420s, we can't responsibly say prices "soften" at a predictable point in the booking window — the data doesn't show a gradual decline or a clear late-window drop. What it does show is a market that's usually priced near its ceiling, punctuated by rare, sharp dips. If your goal is to beat the median, the practical takeaway is to set a fare alert and be ready to book quickly when a fare drops meaningfully below the $405–423 range, rather than waiting for gradual softening that this data doesn't support.

We don't have enough carrier-level detail in this dataset to say whether one airline is driving the low outlier or the high cluster, so we can't make claims about specific carrier behavior or day-of-week patterns here. The honest caveat: with only 24 samples and one clear low-fare anomaly, this snapshot may not fully capture how often that $240-level fare recurs — it could be a one-off error fare, a seasonal dip, or a data artifact. Treat the $422 median as your realistic benchmark, and view anything near $240 as an opportunistic outlier rather than an expected price point.

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