Seattle → Toronto flights

Target $100–$128 on Seattle–Toronto — but watch for $286 outliers

Key takeaways

• Median fare is $103, based on 17 daily snapshots of the cheapest available cached fares on this route.
• 75% of observed fares came in at $128 or below (p75), making that a reliable ceiling to benchmark against when shopping.
• The low floor is $100 and the p25 matches it, meaning the bottom quarter of fares barely moved — these deals exist but may be narrow windows.
• The high reached $286 — a 186% spread — signaling that this route can reprice sharply, likely around peak demand periods or when low-cost inventory sells out.
• Sample size is 17 days, which is thinner than ideal; treat these figures as directional rather than statistically definitive.

30-day price trend

See full numbers and stats on the SEA → YYZ price history page.

The full picture

Seattle–Toronto fares present an interesting two-speed market. The interquartile range — from $100 (p25) to $128 (p75) — is relatively narrow, suggesting that on most days, shoppers who catch a decent fare window will land somewhere in that $100–$128 band. The $103 median reinforces this: there is a genuine cluster of competitive pricing on this route, likely driven by carriers competing on the transborder leisure-and-business corridor between the Pacific Northwest and Canada's largest city.

However, the $286 high fare is a real warning. A 186% spread between the low and the high means pricing on this route is not stable — it moves significantly when demand spikes or when budget-tier inventory is exhausted. The practical implication: if you see a fare at or below $128, that's a historically solid price and there's limited evidence that waiting will deliver much additional savings. Holding out for sub-$100 fares is possible — the data shows they exist — but the p25 sitting right at $100 suggests they don't appear dramatically cheaper or more frequently than the median.

With only 17 daily snapshots in this dataset, some caution is warranted. The sample is large enough to identify the dominant pricing tier ($100–$128) with reasonable confidence, but the outlier high of $286 could reflect a single peak-demand day or a data anomaly rather than a routine risk. That said, the spread is wide enough that it's worth setting a fare alert at $120 and acting quickly if you see fares below that threshold, rather than assuming low prices will persist.

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